The NSW Riverina and country Victoria would make a Great State

The Victorian election will be held on 26/11/22.

Government in Victoria and in NSW is formed by the political party that has the most members in the Legislative Assembly. There is a total of 88 Members of this Assembly.

The Labor party currently forms government with 55 members. The only alternative government is the Liberal/National party coalition with 21 and 6 Members respectively. The Greens have 3 Members and there are 3 independent Members.

In a hypothetical Parliament with the same number of Labor and Coalition Members, the 3 Greens and at least 1 independent Member, Ali Cupper from Mildura who originally stood for election as a Labor candidate, can be counted on to support and form a Labor coalition government.

Therefore with Labor’s 55 Members, plus 3 Greens and at least 1 independent, Labor currently has at least 59 supporting Members out of the total of 88, this being a majority of at least 29. To lose government the labor party needs to lose at lose at least 15 electorates, and these need to be won by the Liberal/National party coalition. It is unlikely that this will happen. While considering that elections can be surprising, due to the numbers I think it is certain that the Labor party will form government after the election.    

Considering the Premier.

The Premier is elected by the Members of the Legislative Assembly. In practice, the Premier is decided by the Members that belong to the political party with the majority of members in this Assembly.

The Premier must be a Member of Parliament. Daniel Andrews is the current Premier and is the member from the electorate of Mulgrave. In the 2018 election there were 34,634 formal votes cast in Mulgrave. After counting primary votes and the distribution of preferential votes, Daniel Andrews received 21,708 votes, and the main opponent received 12,911 votes. These being 63% and 37% respectively. To lose election, Daniel Andrews needs to lose 4,388 votes, these being 13% of the 2018 total. Again, while elections can be surprising, I think this is very unlikely. 

In summary, it is very likely that after the 2022 election the Labor party will form government in Victoria, with Daniel Andrews as the Premier.

Personally, I think that Daniel Andrews is a very bad man, from many perspectives, and I support all efforts to remove him. I think he considers people the equivalent of animals. He has deceived Victorians by creating an illusion of prosperity by spending and distributing massive amounts of public money, while accumulating an equally massive increase in public debt. Regarding the opposition, again personally, I think its leader, Mathew Guy, is a shadow of Daniel Andrews and is far from an inspiring and credible alternative.

It is certain that as Premier, Daniel Andrews will continue his debt funded expenditure, and certain that he will continue suppressing the natural resource-based industries that many non-urban Victorians rely on for their livelihoods.

Victorian politics is already ultra-dominated by the Green inclined population and politicians of Melbourne, Geelong, and the Mornington Peninsula, with non-urban Victorians having no practical representation in Parliament. The livelihoods of many non-urban Victorians are already being suppressed, and it is practically certain that this suppression will only accelerate.

There has been significant and widespread interest and support in Victoria for a Riverina State separate from NSW. As the people in the NSW Riverina and Victoria are closely associated genealogically, historically, commercially and culturally, it is practical and logical for these people to be separate politically from both urban NSW and Victoria and be part of the same State. The obvious and immediate benefit for these people is that this State will have authority over the vast quantity of water, timber, and other natural resources within its area. 

The Riverina State will provide a prosperous future for all the people in it, and it is open to entries of land and people.

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